Alumina Market to Reach US$102.5 Billion by 2030, Driven by Rising Aluminum Demand

The global alumina market, a crucial raw material in aluminum production, was valued at approximately US$69.8 billion in 2022. It is projected to grow steadily at a modest CAGR of 3.7% during 2023 2030, reaching a valuation of US$102.5 billion by the end of the forecast period. The market expects to expand by approximately 1.5 times its 2022 revenue.

Key Market Insights:

  • Alumina, also known as aluminum oxide, plays a pivotal role in aluminum production and serves various industries, including refractories, ceramics, flame retardants, abrasives, and specialty alumina segments.
  • Smelter grade alumina (SGA) dominated the market in 2022, accounting for over 90% of the total alumina demand, primarily driven by the growing aluminum demand.
  • China is the largest global producer of alumina, contributing over 50% to the total alumina production in 2022.
  • Despite geopolitical tensions affecting prices, the alumina market shows potential for growth.
  • Sustainability is a key focus for alumina manufacturers, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance circular economy practices.

Market Drivers:

Rise in Aluminum Demand Uplifts Smelter Grade Alumina:

Alumina is classified into two categories: Smelter Grade Alumina (SGA) and Chemical Grade Alumina (CGA). SGA, manufactured via calcination of aluminum hydroxide, accounted for more than 90% of the total alumina demand in 2022. It plays a crucial role in aluminum production, a vital material in industries such as automotive, aerospace, packaging, and consumer goods. With the global aluminum market forecasted to reach US$498.5 billion by the end of the decade, SGA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2023 to 2030.

Market Challenges:

Volatile Prices Impact Profitability:

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the aluminum supply chain, affecting aluminum and alumina prices. Factors like factory and port shutdowns, and container ship shortages led to price volatility. In 2020, alumina prices dropped by 15%, causing financial difficulties for aluminum smelters. While alumina prices recovered in 2021, supply disruptions in Australia and high energy costs in 2022 led to elevated prices, with an average of US$480 per ton. Price volatility remains a concern due to rising energy costs.

Alumina Manufacturing Costs Soared Due to Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Tensions:

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, two significant alumina and aluminum producers in Europe, have disrupted alumina prices. In 2022, Russia produced over 40% of Europes alumina. Export bans and sanctions on Russia have affected the supply of raw materials. Russias reliance on alumina imports from China and supply disruptions in Australia have further strained the global alumina market. Elevated energy prices have also halted aluminum smelters in Europe, impacting green transition goals.

Growth Opportunities Across Regions:

Rise in Investments in Aluminum Value Chain (India, and Indonesia Lead):

Investments in the aluminum value chain are increasing, with major projects announced in India and Indonesia. Adani Groups US$5 billion investment in a new alumina refinery in India is expected to aid import substitution. Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, is benefiting from Chinas overseas alumina projects. China is importing significant bauxite quantities, with efforts to protect resources leading to export bans, especially in Indonesia.

China Dominates Global Alumina Production, Followed by Australia:

China accounted for over 50% of the global alumina production in 2022, with its output increasing due to new projects and capacity restarts. Australia was the second-largest producer with over 21 million tons. It maintained its position as a major alumina exporter. Latin America, led by Brazil and Jamaica, also contributes to global alumina production.

Alumina Market Competition Landscape Analysis:

Sustainability is a central focus for major alumina manufacturers, including Aluminium Corporation of China Limited (CHALCO), China Hongqiao Group Ltd., Shandong Xinfa Group, Aloca, Rio Tinto Alcan, and Rusal. These companies are expanding capacities, debottlenecking existing facilities, and adopting sustainable technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote circular economy practices.

Browse Global Alumina Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, Regional Outlook, and Forecast 2023-2030 (By Grade Coverage, By Application Coverage, By Geographic Coverage and By Company):

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